The only thing that is for certain about the Northern peace process is its unpredictability. This year alone we have witnessed incidents such as the Robert McCartney murder, the Northern bank robberies, the untimely return of the Colombia Three and riots on the streets of Belfast by disgruntled members of the community.

As efforts are made to contain one controversy, another flares up elsewhere– shifting the media focus, stretching the actors involved and adding to the pressure on what are already strained relations. Grievances build up on all sides, spilling over from one contentious issue to the next and seriously hindering progress. Stalemate becomes a fact of everyday life.

For some of us here in the Republic, Northern Ireland is but a distant relative, while for others it is a most urgent and emotive issue. Many people in the community are pleased with current developments and are hopeful for the future.

One such person is John Langley, a Dun Laoghaire man out for a Saturday morning stroll in Donnybrook. “I’m happy with the decommissioning,” says John, “It’s all based on trust and you have to hope they’ve given up all their arms. The unionists are worried about concessions that should have been given a long time ago anyway. They probably don’t see it that way but it’s really just about equality.”

He feels that the focus on paramilitary activity is too one-sided: “There’s a lot of shouting about nationalist decommissioning but there doesn’t seem to be any great uproar about loyalist groups decommissioning.”

Noreen Moynihan is rushing to be somewhere in Ballsbridge but is happy to offer her opinion on decommissioning: “It’s a fantastic achievement for the Sinn Fein leadership. I think that it was done patiently which tells me that it will be successful– they probably took their time so as to ensure that dissidents would not break it up.”

She can understand the feelings of many unioists on the ground: “The Catholics have become politically astute, they are now well-educated and very ambitious. Something should be done for the Protestant community so that they are enabled to make the same advances.”

As for the hardline politicians, Noreen feels that they will eventually move closer to the middle ground out of necessity. “They will absorb these latest events and be sufficiently politically wise to want the assembly up and running for their own sakes as well.” A final settlement is the last thing on her mind: “I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a united Ireland but I don’t think it matters a jot!”

The wind is picking up in Sandymount and the clouds begin to gather. Local man Thomas Burke is out walking his dog. He’s quite sceptical about the motives of the IRA. “I don’t think the IRA is acting in good faith,” he says. “When there’s no more extortion and no more fear in nationalist communities then that would be a good step.”

Last month’s rioting came as no surprise to Thomas: “I can understand the rioting in unionist areas because the parties linked to nationalist paramilitaries have done well out of this process, whereas those associated with loyalist paramilitaries have done nothing, so they’ve effectively been left behind. There’s nothing left for them.”

He doesn’t see any potential in Sinn Fein as a political party here in the south. “Their policies are not credible. All they can do is local politics and rally support. If Sinn Fein were in power and carried out their mandate all the multinational companies would leave and we would be financially crippled.”

The rain starts to fall and Deirdre Byrne takes shelter in a local shop. She doesn’t have much hope when it comes to the North. “I don’t think the IRA can be trusted. Everybody in the North would have to be convinced before real advances can be made.”

The violence will only continue as Deirdre sees it: “There won’t be an end to it, certainly not within the next two years. The unionists aren’t happy and they’ve every right not to be convinced. I don’t think they’re going to be passive about all this.”

She is pragmatic when it comes to Sinn Fein as a coalition partner. “I can see Sinn Fein in government here in the Republic. They’ve done well in recent elections. People want them, so it’s going to happen.”

There’s a different mood in Irishtown. Tommy Keegan is upbeat. “It’s brilliant. All parties are engaged in peaceful negotiation and everything will be fulfilled, perhaps not in the near future but eventually we’ll have peace in our land.”

In order for problems to be ironed out, the party leaders have to take the initiative and lead from the front: “If the ordinary everyday unionists who are unhappy can use peaceful means, well then they’ll get results and it’s up to the party leaders to encourage them and to set a peaceful example which is based on consensus.”

Tommy is happy to see Sinn Fein in southern politics so long as they uphold peaceful values. “I can see no harm with their current leadership, they’re taking the path of peace. If Sinn Fein can do it, and if the IRA can do it, why not other people?”

It’s surprisingly quiet for a Saturday afternoon in Ringsend and there aren’t a lot of people on the streets. In one of the quieter areas is a man doing some DIY. He will talk about the peace process but won’t give his name.

“I’d rather not,” he says gravely. At first he is cool in his opinions: “It’s not before its time. It remains to be seen if they’re acting in good faith but they can’t really go back now.”

When asked about the possibility of a united Ireland he is more forthcoming. “I think the ex-RUC man hit the nail on the head when he said recently that we’ll see a united Ireland in 15 to 20 years, and you’ll have a huge Republican-led mafia going on in the background as well.”

He is dubious about the integrity of the Sinn Fein Party: “I wouldn’t welcome them into southern politics. With the exception of Mary Lou Mc Donald, the current crop of Sinn Fein politicians are carrying too much baggage.”

Their methods leave him unimpressed. “Because of their financial war chest they can hire people in deprived areas, giving the illusion that they are actually doing something. They’re very critical of everybody else when in fact they do nothing themselves. I don’t buy into any of it”

His desire to remain anonymous was not because of any kind of shy disposition he might have had. Rather it was because he felt that there remained a sense of danger about the issue we call ‘the north’. Still that hint of menace in the air– drifting over the border and permeating the south.

In their opinions on decommissioning, members of the community expressed varying degrees of optimism, pessimism, indifference, fear, cynicism and hope. Which is most likely not altogether different from the feelings of those directly involved in the process.